Aaron Judge HR Favorite

The New York Yankees have managed to stay afloat during the absence of Aaron Judge, as they entered Thursday with a 12-8 record and a three-game lead in the American League East. Despite having missed more than three weeks with a fractured rib, the slugger still ranks in the top 20 in the majors in home runs, but he’ll likely have to go on a tear upon his return if he hopes to be baseball’s home run leader a third time.

Judge, who hasn’t played since May 31 and could be sidelined until August, is tied for 17th place in the majors with 17 homers. Through Wednesday’s action, the 34-year-old trailed Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies for first overall by 12 blasts and was eight behind Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton for the AL lead.

A three-time AL MVP, Judge topped the major leagues in home runs twice over his first decade in the league and led the AL three times. He set the AL single-season record with 62 homers in 2022 and was first in the majors again two years later with 58 blasts.

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A two-time NL home run leader, Schwarber entered Thursday with a major league-high 29 shots. The 33-year-old, who topped the NL with 56 homers last year, belted only three over his first 16 contests this month but hit four in a two-game span against the New York Mets last weekend to get within one of his eighth career 30-homer season and sixth in a row.

Buxton, who set a career high with 35 blasts last year, has gone deep just twice in his last eight outings. Alvarez posted four consecutive 30-homer seasons before being limited to 48 games in 2025, but he has also gone cold as homered only two times in 11 contests since his two-homer performance on June 12 against the Kansas City Royals.

Even though Judge may be on the shelf for another month, SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team likes his chances to turn it on and finish the season as MLB’s home run king for the second time in three years.

The ITL team’s projection model has Judge as the favorite to lead the majors in homers, as it has +125 odds for the Yankees captain. Alvarez is the model’s second favorite at +600, while Schwarber and Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani are even as the third favorite with +800 odds. Learn how to read betting odds here. 

ODDS TO LEAD THE MAJOR LEAGUES IN HOME RUNS

The ITL model doesn’t have high hopes for Buxton being the home run leader, putting his odds at +20000. Prior to last year, the 32-year-old reached the 20-homer plateau just once (28 in 2022) over his first 10 seasons.

Rice is having a tremendous season as he leads the Yankees in both homers (22) and RBI (53). The 27-year-old first baseman was going toe-to-toe with Judge in home runs prior to the latter’s injury and has gone deep five times this month to pull within four blasts of the career high he set last year.

Like Judge, Murakami has had his season derailed by injury. The 26-year-old Japanese rookie belted 20 homers over his first 57 games with the Chicago White Sox but hasn’t played since May 29 because of a hamstring injury.

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Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates was on pace to eclipse his career high of 21 homers as he had 14 through 64 games. But the 27-year-old Dominican outfielder went down with a broken hand earlier this month and isn’t expected back until mid-to-late July.

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson is an interesting choice to lead the majors in home runs this campaign. The 32-year-old entered Thursday tied for sixth place with 20 blasts and topped all players with a career-high 54 just three years ago.